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Delayed Family Formation and Rising Childlessness in India
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- Delayed Family Formation and Rising Childlessness in India
Abstract Content (not more than 300 word, should include: Introduction, Objective, Methodology, critical findings & Conclusion):
Background: India has experienced a sharp fertility decline to sub-replacement levels (TFR ≈ 2.0), yet this transition contrasts with patterns observed in high-income countries. Unlike contexts where delayed marriage and childbearing drive low fertility, nearly all Indian women marry early 97% by age 30—with an average age at first birth of 21.3 years. Despite early family formation, fertility has fallen rapidly, raising questions about delayed family formation and rising childlessness.
Data and Methods: Using data from NFHS-5 (2019–21), we analyze 9,243 women aged 36–49 who remained childless by age 36—a near-definitive marker of permanent childlessness in India. Sequence analysis reconstructs partnership trajectories (marriage, cohabitation, sexual debut), followed by cluster analysis to identify typologies. Discrete-time event history analysis (logistic hazard models) examines timing and risk of relational transitions from ages 12 to 35. Multinomial logistic regression links trajectory clusters to socioeconomic characteristics.
Results: Five partnership trajectory clusters emerge: Formal marriage before cohabitation (7%), Classical marriage (45%), Premarital sex followed by union (9%), Sex outside union without marriage (3%), and No relational transition (36%). The hazard of first sexual intercourse rises after age 18 among women with secondary or higher education (HR = 2.18, while formal marriage before 18 is higher among rural, low-caste, and less-educated women (HR = 3.11. Multinomial regression shows atypical trajectories—especially No transition and Sex outside union—are concentrated among highly educated, urban, and wealthier women (OR = 2.81.
Conclusion: India’s fertility decline and rising childlessness reflect a polarized reality: involuntary childlessness among socioeconomically constrained women versus voluntary or opportunity-driven childlessness among the privileged. Low fertility is diverse reproductive pathways shaped by education, social norms.
Abstract theme:
In case of not been selected for oral presentation, do you want to be considered for the poster presentation ?:
Yes
Do you require financial support to attend the seminar ? (Not applicable for virtual meet):
Yes-full
Gender:
Male
Evaluation Status:
No