International Institute for Population Sciences
Deemed to be University (An Autonomous Organization of Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India)

Background: The length of the ‘marriage to first birth interval’ affects not only the length of the subsequent birth intervals but also the reproduction behaviour, fertility pattern, birth rate, and size of the population in an area. This study examines the spatial patterns and determinants of ‘marriage to first birth interval’ (MFBI) at the district level in India. Methods: We utilized the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data conducted in 2019-21. We assessed the spatial pattern of MFBI through choropleth mapping, Anselin Moran’s I, univariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and bivariate LISA techniques. Finally, we employed the ordinary least square, spatial lag, and spatial error model to examine the correlates of MFBI at the district level in India. Results: We found a significantly high spatial autocorrelation for mean MFBI (Moran’s I: 0.822; p-value <0.001) at the district level. The spatial distribution reflected a skewed spatial pattern of mean MFBI among women across space. Our study found a hotspot (high-high cluster) of mean MFBI in the northern region, whereas a cold spot (low-low cluster) in the southern and northeastern areas. The spatial regression model further indicates that the proportion of women aged 15-24, married before age 18, unexposed to mass media, Muslim religion, and rural residents were major spatial determinants of MFBI at the district level in India. Conclusion: Our findings indicate a staggering scenario of MFBI in the northern Indian districts because women’s low age at marriage led to a higher MFBI. In contrast, in southern Indian districts, a shorter MFBI is because a higher proportion of women get married after age 18. Keywords: Marriage to first birth interval, Nuptiality, Fertility, Marriage, Spatial autocorrelation, Spatial regression, Spatial error model.