International Institute for Population Sciences
Deemed to be University (An Autonomous Organization of Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India)

The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on global migration patterns, with return migration emerging as a significant phenomenon. Kerala, a state known for its high levels of emigration, particularly to the Gulf countries, experienced an unprecedented influx of returning migrants during this period. This study examines the prospects and dynamics of migration in the post-pandemic era Based on primary data collected from Malappuram district, Kerala, the study employs qualitative research methods, including in-depth interviews and key informant interviews. A total of 30 in-depth interviews were conducted with return migrants, along with five key informant interviews with various stakeholders. The study found that approximately 65% of return migrants expressed intentions to remigrate, primarily driven by insufficient employment opportunities and lower incomes in India, with younger migrants (21-30 years), those returning from UAE, and individuals with lower economic reintegration being significantly more likely to plan remigration. Saudi Arabia and UAE remained the preferred destinations for potential remigration, accounting for 48.4% and 40.7% respectively. The future of Gulf migration presents a mixed outlook, as COVID-19 impacts and nationalization policies have created challenges particularly for unskilled and semi-skilled workers, while skilled and professional migrants continue to find opportunities in sectors like health, education, engineering, and finance. Key informants emphasized that Gulf countries still offer prospects for qualified migrants who follow legal channels and possess in-demand skills, though sending countries must invest in upskilling their workforce in emerging technologies to remain competitive in the evolving Gulf labor market.