International Institute for Population Sciences
Deemed to be University (An Autonomous Organization of Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India)

Introduction: In statistically underdeveloped countries, like South Africa, to estimate demographic parameters is still a challenge. As such, there is continued reliance of indirect estimation procedures and acceptable estimates are in most cases available at national level. However, there is increased demand to have reliable estimates of demographic parameters at subnational levels. Objective: The main objective of this study is to estimate fertility for South Africa and its subdivisions using the Rele method. Methodology: The study used age statistics from the 1996, 2001, 2011 and 2022 population censuses. Rele method was used to derive estimates of fertility at national, provincial and municipality levels. The method relies on a linear relationship between Gross Reproduction Rate and Child Woman Ratio. Results: At national level, Total Fertility Rate remained constant at 3.3 children per woman between 1996 and 2001 but declined to 2.8 and 2.4 in 2011 and 2022 respectively. There are variations in fertility by province, population groups and municipality. Fertility is lower among the affluent provinces and municipalities (such as Gauteng, Western Cape) than the disadvantaged provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Eastern Cape and North West. Further, the national and provincial estimates of fertility were compared with the estimates by other researchers and were found to be within acceptable range. Conclusion: Estimating fertility at subnation levels will help to understand fertility transition at the local level and monitor the success of population and development programs.