International Institute for Population Sciences
Deemed to be University (An Autonomous Organization of Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India)

This study estimates India's gender dividend using a panel of 25 major states from 1981 to 2021, analysing interactions between gender-specific working-age ratios and human capital. We employ a counterfactual simulation to quantify the economic gains from closing gender gaps. Three key findings emerge. First, fixed-effects regressions indicate that increasing female labour-force participation yields a higher marginal economic return than male participation, raising per capita income by 0.65 percent compared to 0.45 percent. While female educational attainment is highly significant, its per capita income gains are slightly lower than those for male attainment (3.9 versus 4.2 percent). Second, simulations show that India's largest untapped potential lies in employment: equalising male and female labour-force participation would raise per capita income by 150.5 per cent (to $10,901), whereas closing the education gap would yield a further 35.4 per cent gain. Third, state-level heterogeneity confirms that employment barriers now constitute the most binding constraint on growth, underscoring the need for targeted, state-specific policies.